Vancouver Real Estate Inventory Rises To A 23 Month High

Posted by Ricky Dhadwal on Wednesday, October 11th, 2017 at 4:33pm.

Vancouver real estate prices continued to rise in September. Numbers from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) show prices are still making huge annual gains. This was paired with higher inventory, and higher sales.

Prices Rise 10.92%

The price of a home in Vancouver climbed by almost every measure in September. According to REBGV, the benchmark price reached $1,037,300, up 0.74% from the month before. This represents a 10.92% increase from the same time last year. Average sale prices posted increases in all three housing segments as well.

Greater Vancouver Composite Benchmark Price
MonthBenchmark Price
Jan 2005 382,500
Feb 2005 384,800
Mar 2005 387,100
Apr 2005 389,000
May 2005 394,700
Jun 2005 400,500
Jul 2005 406,200
Aug 2005 411,200
Sep 2005 418,100
Oct 2005 420,800
Nov 2005 423,800
Dec 2005 427,300
Jan 2006 435,300
Feb 2006 444,500
Mar 2006 452,500
Apr 2006 462,100
May 2006 471,600
Jun 2006 479,300
Jul 2006 483,100
Aug 2006 486,900
Sep 2006 490,400
Oct 2006 490,700
Nov 2006 491,100
Dec 2006 490,400
Jan 2007 497,300
Feb 2007 502,600
Mar 2007 508,000
Apr 2007 515,600
May 2007 522,900
Jun 2007 529,800
Jul 2007 534,400
Aug 2007 539,300
Sep 2007 543,500
Oct 2007 546,200
Nov 2007 548,900
Dec 2007 550,800
Jan 2008 555,400
Feb 2008 561,500
Mar 2008 566,500
Apr 2008 568,800
May 2008 569,900
Jun 2008 571,800
Jul 2008 562,300
Aug 2008 555,800
Sep 2008 548,500
Oct 2008 533,600
Nov 2008 518,700
Dec 2008 504,100
Jan 2009 501,100
Feb 2009 497,300
Mar 2009 493,800
Apr 2009 500,300
May 2009 507,200
Jun 2009 514,500
Jul 2009 523,300
Aug 2009 532,100
Sep 2009 541,600
Oct 2009 546,200
Nov 2009 553,500
Dec 2009 559,600
Jan 2010 565,700
Feb 2010 572,200
Mar 2010 578,300
Apr 2010 582,900
May 2010 582,200
Jun 2010 579,500
Jul 2010 574,100
Aug 2010 571,100
Sep 2010 568,800
Oct 2010 567,600
Nov 2010 568,800
Dec 2010 568,400
Jan 2011 574,100
Feb 2011 579,900
Mar 2011 590,600
Apr 2011 603,200
May 2011 609,300
Jun 2011 613,900
Jul 2011 616,200
Aug 2011 616,600
Sep 2011 615,100
Oct 2011 612,800
Nov 2011 610,900
Dec 2011 608,200
Jan 2012 608,600
Feb 2012 615,100
Mar 2012 621,900
Apr 2012 626,500
May 2012 629,200
Jun 2012 624,200
Jul 2012 619,700
Aug 2012 613,100
Sep 2012 609,700
Oct 2012 607,000
Nov 2012 602,100
Dec 2012 596,300
Jan 2013 593,600
Feb 2013 595,900
Mar 2013 598,600
Apr 2013 603,200
May 2013 603,200
Jun 2013 606,600
Jul 2013 607,000
Aug 2013 606,600
Sep 2013 607,000
Oct 2013 606,600
Nov 2013 609,300
Dec 2013 608,900
Jan 2014 612,800
Feb 2014 615,800
Mar 2014 621,900
Apr 2014 625,400
May 2014 631,100
Jun 2014 634,600
Jul 2014 635,000
Aug 2014 637,200
Sep 2014 639,200
Oct 2014 643,000
Nov 2014 643,400
Dec 2014 644,900
Jan 2015 648,000
Feb 2015 656,400
Mar 2015 667,800
Apr 2015 679,700
May 2015 691,600
Jun 2015 700,700
Jul 2015 707,600
Aug 2015 715,700
Sep 2015 729,000
Oct 2015 741,700
Nov 2015 758,100
Dec 2015 767,300
Jan 2016 782,200
Feb 2016 805,200
Mar 2016 827,000
Apr 2016 856,000
May 2016 898,500
Jun 2016 925,700
Jul 2016 937,900
Aug 2016 941,000
Sep 2016 935,200
Oct 2016 927,600
Nov 2016 918,000
Dec 2016 906,500
Jan 2017 905,800
Feb 2017 916,900
Mar 2017 933,300
Apr 2017 955,500
May 2017 981,100
Jun 2017 998,700
Jul 2017 1,019,400
Aug 2017 1,029,700
Sep 2017 1,037,300
 

Source: REBGV.

One thing to keep an eye on is how much smaller the annual gains have been getting. While a 10.92% price increase would be huge in any other city, it’s a lot less than the 28.29% made the same time last year. It could just be a tapering of gains after a huge run, however, it could also be a continuation of a downtrend. Either way it’s really worth paying attention to over the next few months.

Greater Vancouver Composite Benchmark Price Change
Month12 Month Change
Jan 2006 13.8
Feb 2006 15.51
Mar 2006 16.89
Apr 2006 18.79
May 2006 19.48
Jun 2006 19.68
Jul 2006 18.93
Aug 2006 18.41
Sep 2006 17.29
Oct 2006 16.61
Nov 2006 15.88
Dec 2006 14.77
Jan 2007 14.24
Feb 2007 13.07
Mar 2007 12.27
Apr 2007 11.58
May 2007 10.88
Jun 2007 10.54
Jul 2007 10.62
Aug 2007 10.76
Sep 2007 10.83
Oct 2007 11.31
Nov 2007 11.77
Dec 2007 12.32
Jan 2008 11.68
Feb 2008 11.72
Mar 2008 11.52
Apr 2008 10.32
May 2008 8.99
Jun 2008 7.93
Jul 2008 5.22
Aug 2008 3.06
Sep 2008 0.92
Oct 2008 -2.31
Nov 2008 -5.5
Dec 2008 -8.48
Jan 2009 -9.78
Feb 2009 -11.43
Mar 2009 -12.83
Apr 2009 -12.04
May 2009 -11
Jun 2009 -10.02
Jul 2009 -6.94
Aug 2009 -4.26
Sep 2009 -1.26
Oct 2009 2.36
Nov 2009 6.71
Dec 2009 11.01
Jan 2010 12.89
Feb 2010 15.06
Mar 2010 17.11
Apr 2010 16.51
May 2010 14.79
Jun 2010 12.63
Jul 2010 9.71
Aug 2010 7.33
Sep 2010 5.02
Oct 2010 3.92
Nov 2010 2.76
Dec 2010 1.57
Jan 2011 1.48
Feb 2011 1.35
Mar 2011 2.13
Apr 2011 3.48
May 2011 4.65
Jun 2011 5.94
Jul 2011 7.33
Aug 2011 7.97
Sep 2011 8.14
Oct 2011 7.96
Nov 2011 7.4
Dec 2011 7
Jan 2012 6.01
Feb 2012 6.07
Mar 2012 5.3
Apr 2012 3.86
May 2012 3.27
Jun 2012 1.68
Jul 2012 0.57
Aug 2012 -0.57
Sep 2012 -0.88
Oct 2012 -0.95
Nov 2012 -1.44
Dec 2012 -1.96
Jan 2013 -2.46
Feb 2013 -3.12
Mar 2013 -3.75
Apr 2013 -3.72
May 2013 -4.13
Jun 2013 -2.82
Jul 2013 -2.05
Aug 2013 -1.06
Sep 2013 -0.44
Oct 2013 -0.07
Nov 2013 1.2
Dec 2013 2.11
Jan 2014 3.23
Feb 2014 3.34
Mar 2014 3.89
Apr 2014 3.68
May 2014 4.63
Jun 2014 4.62
Jul 2014 4.61
Aug 2014 5.04
Sep 2014 5.3
Oct 2014 6
Nov 2014 5.6
Dec 2014 5.91
Jan 2015 5.74
Feb 2015 6.59
Mar 2015 7.38
Apr 2015 8.68
May 2015 9.59
Jun 2015 10.42
Jul 2015 11.43
Aug 2015 12.32
Sep 2015 14.05
Oct 2015 15.35
Nov 2015 17.83
Dec 2015 18.98
Jan 2016 20.71
Feb 2016 22.67
Mar 2016 23.84
Apr 2016 25.94
May 2016 29.92
Jun 2016 32.11
Jul 2016 32.55
Aug 2016 31.48
Sep 2016 28.29
Oct 2016 25.06
Nov 2016 21.09
Dec 2016 18.14
Jan 2017 15.8
Feb 2017 13.87
Mar 2017 12.85
Apr 2017 11.62
May 2017 9.19
Jun 2017 7.89
Jul 2017 8.69
Aug 2017 9.43
Sep 2017 10.92
 

Source: REBGV.

Sales Are Up 25.21%

Sales made a pretty large climb compared to last year. REBGV reported 2,821 sales, down 7.3% from the month before. This represents a 25.21% increase, when compared to the same time last year. While the climb is huge, it’s worth noting that last year’s numbers were likely artificially low due to the introduction of the Non-Resident Transfer Tax (a.k.a. foreign buyer tax). September 2016 was only the second month, so numbers were likely a little lower than they would have been otherwise.

Greater Vancouver Composite Sales Vs. Listings
MonthSalesListings
Dec 2015 2,827 6,024
Jan 2016 2,519 6,635
Feb 2016 4,172 7,299
Mar 2016 5,173 7,358
Apr 2016 4,781 7,550
May 2016 4,769 7,726
Jun 2016 4,400 7,812
Jul 2016 3,226 8,351
Aug 2016 2,489 8,506
Sep 2016 2,253 9,354
Oct 2016 2,233 9,143
Nov 2016 2,214 8,385
Dec 2016 1,714 6,345
Jan 2017 1,523 7,238
Feb 2017 2,425 7,594
Mar 2017 3,579 7,586
Apr 2017 3,553 7,813
May 2017 4,364 8,168
Jun 2017 3,893 8,515
Jul 2017 2,960 9,194
Aug 2017 3,043 8,807
Sep 2017 2,821 9,466
 

Source: REBGV.

Listings Are At A 23 Month High

The Greater Vancouver Region is notorious for low inventory, but the composite numbers are inching higher. REBGV reported 9,466 listings in September, 7.48% higher than the month before. That’s 1.2% higher than the same time last year. The number is the highest seen since October 2015, so we’re at a 23 month high. This is still less inventory than seen just two Septembers ago, so we’re not exactly flooding in inventory. It’s just higher than we’ve seen recently.

Prices continued to climb, which is good for property owners. However, it’s a little less clear what higher listings and sales mean. The sales to listings to ratio is higher than it was in 2016, but 2016 had sales artificially compressed. The ratio may be higher, but that doesn’t mean the desire to buy is much higher – since many people last year accelerated their September buy to close in July – before the foreign buyer tax went into effect. As always, we’ll be breaking down the market segment by segment over the next few days, to give more specific insights and metrics.

Ricky Dhadwal
604.418.6600

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