Toronto Detached Real Estate Prices Drop Up To $200,000

Posted by Ricky Dhadwal on Monday, August 14th, 2017 at 8:01am.

Toronto’s detached real estate is having another rough month. Numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) show that buyer indecision provided substantial downward pressure to the detached segment in July. Generally speaking, detached units across TREB saw lower prices, less sales, and more inventory.

Prices Declined Up To $205,000 From Last Month

Detached prices remain in positive territory, but are showing pretty large drops. The benchmark price, the price of a typical detached home, fell to $963,900 across TREB,  a 6.16% decline from the month before. Before you say crash, this price is still 14.93% higher than the same time last year. In the 416, the benchmark price for a detached fell to $1,146,100, a 4.9% decline from the month before. This is up 13.12% from the same time last year. Prices remain positive across TREB, but price gains are tapering quickly.

Toronto Average Detached Prices
MonthTREB416905
Oct 2015 823,177 1,071,394 734,745
Nov 2015 829,241 1,018,621 762,326
Dec 2015 825,470 1,039,638 747,229
Jan 2016 848,999 1,061,789 783,565
Feb 2016 909,761 1,211,459 816,705
Mar 2016 910,375 1,174,358 837,217
Apr 2016 968,437 1,257,958 881,413
May 2016 986,691 1,285,693 891,870
Jun 2016 979,445 1,259,486 892,747
Jul 2016 952,983 1,202,753 888,565
Aug 2016 964,002 1,206,637 905,610
Sep 2016 1,013,788 1,294,482 928,414
Oct 2016 1,034,077 1,303,339 948,191
Nov 2016 1,058,273 1,345,962 957,517
Dec 2016 1,016,145 1,286,605 934,055
Jan 2017 1,068,670 1,336,640 999,102
Feb 2017 1,205,815 1,573,622 1,106,201
Mar 2017 1,214,422 1,561,780 1,124,088
Apr 2017 1,205,262 1,578,542 1,098,827
May 2017 1,141,041 1,503,868 1,025,893
Jun 2017 1,055,863 1,386,524 948,099
Jul 2017 1,000,336 1,304,288 910,348
 

Source: TREB.

Breaking down the 416, every neighbourhood saw a decline from the month before – but some stand out. The Rexdale-Kipling neighbourhood (TREB W10) saw prices drop the least, with the price of a detached home now $748,500, a decline of $12,600 from the month before. One of the city’s most affluent neighbourhoods, Bayview Village/Hillcrest Village (TREB C15), saw the greatest declines. The benchmark price for a detached in that neighbourhood fell to $1,532,100, a $205,200 decline from the month before.

Detached Sales Are Down 47.4%

Sales showed large declines, posting the worst number for July in at least 5 years. TREB saw 2,434 sales, a 47.4% decline from the same time last year. The 905 logged 1,878 of those sales, a 48.9% decline. The 416 saw 556 sales, a 41.7% decline. Sales tend to taper as prices get higher, but this is a really large drop. To contrast, July 2016 also saw a decline from the previous year, but it was only 1.5%.

Toronto Detached New Listings Vs. Sales
MonthSalesNew Listings
Oct 2015 4,100 6,299
Nov 2015 3,451 4,153
Dec 2015 2,134 1,980
Jan 2016 2,109 3,822
Feb 2016 3,627 5,165
Mar 2016 4,954 7,029
Apr 2016 6,062 7,805
May 2016 6,500 8,554
Jun 2016 6,307 8,432
Jul 2016 4,653 6,347
Aug 2016 4,449 5,803
Sep 2016 4,708 7,659
Oct 2016 4,499 6,767
Nov 2016 3,890 5,109
Dec 2016 2,259 1,736
Jan 2017 2,261 3,244
Feb 2017 3,721 4,825
Mar 2017 5,887 9,012
Apr 2017 5,715 11,863
May 2017 4,757 14,036
Jun 2017 3,450 10,263
Jul 2017 2,434 6,989
 

Source: TREB.

Detached Inventory Is Building

Inventory is soaring across the TREB, especially in the suburbs. The GTA saw 6,989 detached listings, a 10% increase from the same time last year. The 416 saw 1,282 new listings, a 27% increase from the same time last year. In terms of total inventory, the month ended with 10,497 active detached listings, a 120% increase from the same time last year. It’s too soon to call it a trend, but active detached listings have been significantly higher over the past three months than they have been over the past couple of years.

The city has been hit with a number of changes that impact the market, including the Ontario Fair Housing Plan, higher interest rates, and increased difficulty in obtaining mortgages. Historically, higher interest rates only impact the Canadian market for less than a year, but it’s tough to tell what the combination of factors will do. This really is a wait and see market, the best case scenario for homeowners being a repeat of Vancouver.

Ricky Dhadwal
604.418.6600

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